2050 more than nine billion people?

UN: Population Explosion in Developing Countries

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Despite a slight decline in the number of children, the world's population is still growing by 78 million every year. According to the middle version of the latest projections of the United Nations, by the year 2050 there will be an increase of 2.5 billion people. By the middle of the century, 9.2 billion people will live on Earth - today it is 6.7 billion. These are the results of the current population projections of the United Nations, which the German Foundation for World Population (DSW) presented yesterday in Germany.


According to the report, population growth will take place exclusively in developing countries in the future. There, the population will grow from 5.4 to 7.9 billion over the next 43 years. In industrialized countries, however, the population remains almost constant at about 1.2 billion.

Population explosion in the 50 poorest countries in the world

"Especially the least developed countries are still growing rapidly, " says Catherina Hinz from the DSW. "In the 50 poorest countries in the world, the population will more than double from 0.8 to 1.7 billion by 2050." In countries with a young age structure, such as Afghanistan, Uganda, Niger or the Congo, populations will increase in population even triple in the next 43 years.

"There is an urgent need for greater support to family planning policies in these countries. Only when population growth slows can these countries successfully fight poverty. The rapidly growing population is already overburdening the health and education systems of these states, "emphasizes Hinz. display

The UN projections estimate that average fertility in developing countries will fall from 2.75 to 2.05 children per woman by 2050 from today. "Achieving this goal would require additional investment of $ 70 million a year in family planning services in Africa alone, " says Hinz.

HIV / AIDS reduces life expectancy in Africa

Although the number of AIDS patients receiving antiretroviral therapy has increased significantly, AIDS still has a significant impact on life expectancy in many developing countries, according to the DSW. In Southern Africa, where HIV infection rates are highest, life expectancy has declined from 62 years in the 1990-95 period to only 49 years in 2005-2010 due to the immunodeficiency syndrome. It is expected that life expectancy will not reach a level comparable to the beginning of the 1990s until around 2045.

Despite the high mortality rate, population growth in southern Africa is still rising by 0.6 percent per year. "In addition to the treatment of AIDS patients, it is important in the future to prevent further infections. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen HIV prevention and to interlink it more with other measures of reproductive health such as family planning and pregnancy care, "said Hinz.

The world is aging - especially the industrialized countries

Another trend emerging from the new United Nations figures is the marked aging of the world's population by the middle of the century. Worldwide, the number of people over the age of 60 will triple from 673 million to two billion by 2050. In the industrialized countries, the proportion of over-60s will rise from 20 percent to 33 percent in 2050. Each child will then have more than two persons over two.

Europe will shrink by 2050, according to the DSW by 67 million people. Even today, due to low birth rates, 28 industrialized countries can only prevent a decline in their population by taking in migrants or at least show moderate growth. Germany also has 150, 000 immigrants each year.

(DSW, 14.03.2007 - DLO)